French real estate market: moderate recovery and stable rates in 2026

## Prices: moderate growth with regional disparities

The PAP observatory and Meilleurs Agents report a tentative recovery in 2025. Over one year, property prices in France are rising by roughly 1.6‑1.7%. Some large cities show stronger growth: Nice (+3.3%), Toulouse (+2.1%) or Lyon (+1.6%), while Nantes continues to decline (‑3.9%). Prices are generally stable in the Paris region and falling in rural areas.

The SeLoger–Meilleurs Agents study relayed by Le Point indicates that the average price of housing in France stands at €3,134/m² in early 2026. It fell by 0.1% in one month but remains 1.3% higher over a year. This stagnation reflects a market that is recovering but still fragile.

## Transactions and financing: rates stabilising

Lower interest rates in 2024‑2025 have brought buyers back. According to FNAIM, mortgage rates, which fell threefold in two years, rose slightly to around 3.20% in January 2026. The broker CAFPI notes that the best profiles secure rates of around 2.80% over 15 years and 3.00% over 20 years, while average rates are about 3.13% over 15 years, 3.26% over 20 years and 3.41% over 25 years. This stabilisation of rates supports the recovery.

## Construction: permits up but still lagging

The Ministry of Housing counted about 380,000 building permits issued in 2025 (+15% year‑on‑year) but still below the five‑year average. In detail, 132,819 permits relate to detached houses (29% below the five‑year average) and 246,403 to multi‑unit housing, close to the 2019–2024 level. Housing starts increased modestly to 274,611 in 2025 (+5% year‑on‑year) and remain well below historic averages.

## Outlook: caution and uncertainty

Despite this recovery, FNAIM warns that the economic and political climate remains uncertain and that housing supply is insufficient, which could slow momentum and stagnate purchasing power. Moderate economic growth (+0.9% in 2025, +1% forecast in 2026) and inflation around 1% suggest measured price changes. Investors will also have to adapt to the upcoming private landlord status, a fiscal incentive in the 2026 finance bill that aims to stimulate rental investment.

In short, the French market enters 2026 with a moderate recovery: transactions continue to rise but at a slower pace, prices stabilise with regional disparities, mortgage rates remain around 3% and construction is struggling to catch up. Real‑estate stakeholders should monitor new regulatory measures and economic developments to adjust their strategies.