Property market: autumn 2026 update — sales recovering, prices on hold

A market that is holding up, but levelling off

After two years of sharp decline, the resale market has stabilised. According to SeLoger and Meilleurs Agents' autumn analysis, around 955,000 transactions are expected in 2026, a volume similar to 2025. The market is still 50,000 to 70,000 sales short of the "normal" pace of one million transactions a year.

Prices are broadly steady: they are flat year-on-year nationally, stagnating in Paris and slightly down (-0.4%) in the ten largest regional cities. Differences between cities are real: +2.6% in Bordeaux, +2.5% in Rennes, but -1.4% in Nice, -2.1% in Nantes and -2.2% in Montpellier. Rural areas are up 3.1%.

Source: Meilleurs Agents.

Paris region: sales clearly picking up

On 10 September, the Notaires du Grand Paris published their Q2 figures. With 31,750 sales, activity in the Île-de-France region is up 10% year-on-year: 23,070 apartments (+11%) and 8,680 houses (+8%). The recovery is especially strong in Paris, where volumes jumped 20%, compared with +11% in the inner suburbs and +4% in the outer suburbs.

Prices, however, remain restrained:

• Paris: €9,560/m² on average for an existing apartment, +0.6% year-on-year

• Apartments in Île-de-France: €6,130/m², +0.3% year-on-year

• Houses in Île-de-France: €320,000 on average, -1.5% year-on-year

Notaries describe a "slow recovery", with preliminary contracts improving since early summer, but momentum will largely depend on interest rates. Source: Immo Matin / Notaires du Grand Paris.

Buying power: the main brake this autumn

Rising mortgage rates, now around 3.5% to 3.65% over 20 years depending on the barometer, are eroding households' purchasing power. According to Meilleurs Agents, the area a typical buyer can finance has shrunk by about 11 m² compared with 2020. Demand nonetheless remains present, 12% above its early-2021 level.

Notaries are more cautious: in their latest survey, 60% expect prices to fall, up from 52% in the spring. They point to longer selling times, more loan applications being refused or scaled back, and growing stock, partly fed by landlords selling up. They distinguish three situations: limited erosion in tight metropolitan markets with scarce supply, a gradual correction in balanced mid-sized cities, and marked falls in slack areas for properties with poor energy ratings (JeChange).

Rentals: rents are accelerating

Rental pressure is increasing: rents are up 2.6% year-on-year nationally, compared with around 1% previously, and rental supply in Paris remains about 30% below pre-Covid levels. In new-builds, the crisis continues with 15,000 to 16,000 apartment reservations per quarter, half the pre-pandemic level. All of this supports the value of well-located existing homes.

What is the outlook for 2027?

SeLoger and Meilleurs Agents outline two scenarios. In the more favourable one, the market would reach 980,000 to 1 million transactions, with prices up 2% to 3%. In the adverse scenario, driven by further rate rises, sales would fall back to 900,000–930,000, with flat prices. The path of the 10-year OAT and bank rates over the coming months will be decisive.

What this means for you

If you are selling, the asking price at launch is crucial: in a market where buyers compare and negotiate, an overpriced property quickly stalls and often ends up selling below its value. A complete file (diagnostics, energy rating, co-ownership documents) reassures buyers and their bank.

If you are buying, there is room to negotiate, particularly on properties needing renovation or listed for several weeks. In the most sought-after areas of Paris and the western suburbs, quality properties remain scarce and sell quickly: having your financing ready lets you move without delay.

To find out more, read our analysis Paris 2026: where prices are rising, stagnating or falling, or request a valuation of your property from the LGH Patrimoine team.